Horse Racing Handicaps Lesson 3 – Which races are the most predictable?
When it comes to making a living betting on horses, or even just trying to have a good day every now and then, the issue of predictability comes up. The reason for this is that, in addition to getting good odds on everything you bet, you also need to win often enough to keep your bankroll. Predictability and fair odds go hand in hand when it comes to making money by picking winners.
Some people think that single races are the least predictable because the horses are young and many have little or no racing experience. The stats tell a different story, at least the winning percentage of the favorites does. Winning percentage for favorites, as well as average odds for all winners, is a good indicator of how predictable or true races are on any track.
Taking a look at a track like Florida, for example, you have the highest pockets and big-name trainers on a big track like Gulfstream and the smallest bags and lesser-known trainers on a track like Tampa Bay. Both tracks are good tracks and you can enjoy racing on either one. Some people say Gulfstream is a better place to make money betting on horses, while others like Tampa Bay.
The wallets are smaller in Tampa Bay and therefore the quality of the horses is lower, but the horses at Tampa Bay races are as close as the horses at Gulfstream Park. In other words, the races are just as contentious and fun to handicap and watch.
However, you will find a better chance of winning in Tampa Bay, which may or may not appeal to you. The reason for this is that the smaller the wallets and therefore the lower the quality of the horses, the more likely a trainer’s movement will improve a horse. I know a lot of people will disagree with me, but that’s my opinion and I’ve been playing both songs for years.
The best trainers who train at Gulfstream get some of the best horses in the country. Those horses are fitter and in better shape than the Tampa Bay horses. If you have a horse that can run in the $ 50,000 claim ranges, you don’t run it in Tampa Bay. Your horse is simply better than those horses and therefore you race it at Gulfstream for higher earnings. When horses have fewer defects and more skill, in my opinion, they are more predictable.
Now before Tampa Bay fans gear up the lynch mob to hang this old horse player, let me tell you that his track is a good track and the races are controversial. From a handicap standpoint, if you’re looking for good rewards and smart enough to see the trainer’s moves going on, those TB races might pay off for you.
When it comes to handicapping in horse racing, predictability and profitability are not always the same. You must be able to predict the results better than the crowd. Many people trying to put handicaps in TB racing hope that these horses will be as true to form as GP horses. There are very good trainers at TB who are adept at figuring out what’s going on with a horse and making adjustments to equipment and training and getting a win at a good price.
So what I’m saying is that higher earnings and higher quality horses make racing more predictable, but predictability and profitability are not always the same when betting on horses. If you are good enough to understand coaches and how they are successful at what they do, you might find a smaller track like Tampa Bay more to your liking. On the other hand, if you need more predictability and are willing to sacrifice and be less likely to beat your winners, Gulfstream Park has good racing too.