In the wake of Osama bin Laden’s capture and death in May 2011, the terrorist organization he led vowed that jubilation would soon follow in the White House. “replaced by pain and blood”.
Days later, the jihadist websites published news of “a curse that haunts the Americans and their collaborators and persecutes them inside and outside their country.”
This threat looked a lot like a fatwa from Al Qaeda itself, a kind of modern version of the ancient curse that supposedly fell on the desecrators of ancient royal tombs in Egypt, the homeland of Al Qaeda’s new top leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri. .
“Death will come with swift wings to those who disturb the peace of the King.” This is the wording of a curse that was anecdotally reported to have been found on the tomb of Pharaoh Tutankhamun in 1922 by Howard Carter and his wealthy English patron, the Earl of Carnarvon. Carnarvon died shortly after, from a mosquito bite (fast wings).
Osama Bin Laden was a kind of modern pharaoh, the King of Terror. The SEAL Team Six disturbed his sleep in a major way, then sent him to the bottom of the Arabian Sea where he could sleep for eternity.
To the surprise of analysts at global intelligence agencies on both sides of the Atlantic, a ten-paragraph confirmation of Osama’s death was also released, seemingly closing the door to an option that many believed al-Qaeda would likely have kept open for. years: the preservation of the belief that Bin Laden was still alive, that SEAL Team Six had killed the wrong man, and that the great Osama Bin Laden would lead his warriors to supreme victory again at some point in the future.
And now the 36-month anniversary of OBL’s death is only a few months away, their three-year anniversary.
What does Al Qaeda’s report card say about avenging OBL’s death? How successful has Ayman al-Zawahiri been in establishing his “street cred” as a jihadist who can deliver devastating revenge for the death of the most famous terrorist of our time? And what has Al Qaeda’s new top leadership, the directors of the global terror boardroom, done to maintain the jihadist momentum after the spectacular takedown of the pharaoh of Jihad, Osama Bin Laden?
On several occasions since OBL’s death in Abbottabad, red alerts have been issued in Washington and elsewhere about possible new attacks that were thought to be strategically significant, very large, usually based on intercepted communications, “talk” raised from the Ether by the National Security Agency (NSA) at Fort Meade.
Last August, for example, senior US counterterrorism officials expressed “concern about devices that could be implanted inside the body of a terrorist … surgically implanted devices that have been developed to defeat detection methods.”
In the wake of such reports, the State Department has occasionally closed embassies or evacuated non-essential personnel from hot spots abroad in an effort to mitigate potential terrorist attacks.
But in general, the scene of terror has been one of apathy and stillness. How many men surround fugitive Ayman al-Zawahiri at his hideout in the tribal desert of Pakistan? Are they a significant force?
Many believe that Al Qaeda’s core group is made up of just a hundred desperate and persecuted men, men whose eyes turn to the sky where modern, mechanical birds of prey hunt them mercilessly. Drones have killed thousands of terrorists in Pakistan, and perhaps thousands more innocents as collateral damage.
Even before OBL’s death, the US National Intelligence Directorate noted “advances in Muslim opinion turning against terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda.” Certainly, there is no nation on the planet that is remotely likely to be ruled by Al-Qaeda. Ayman al-Zawahiri himself is more concerned about the lack of organizational cohesion within his high command and the risk of his capture or death. Posting vicious and crazy sounding video threats, which you continue to do sporadically, is not the same as carrying out punitive attacks.
It is no wonder, then, that so many high-level and cautious intelligence professionals think that Al Qaeda has had its fangs removed. It is not that terrorism has been defeated, which is another matter. There are groups other than Al Qaeda that should concern us. But al Qaeda is not the formidable organization it once was. Maybe OBL was not easy to replace?
There is a new kind of terrorism in the world, a smarter kind of modern terrorism, the kind that cuts deals with those in power to find a place at the table. How does it work?
A few years ago, Hamas was forced to respond to a very nasty attack by Ayman al-Zawahiri, who had accused Hamas of “joining the train of surrender” by agreeing to participate in supervised elections that could eventually result in a unity government. , where former terrorists would really have a voice in the corridors of power.
Hamas was right when it responded to Al-Zawahiri with the comment that the group had little need for advice from “a fugitive in the Afghan mountains” who probably “did not know what was going on.”
At some point, the terrorists must decide whether they want to blow up the people or really rule. And that is a threshold that the leaders of Al Qaeda have not crossed, and may not be able to cross because they have alienated themselves from so many of their peers.
That truth may turn out to be a death sentence not only for Ayman al-Zawahiri, but for the Al Qaeda organization itself.